Oil tankers carrying crude and refined products in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are now facing the most severe threat level since the Iran war began, an observation echoed by shipping analysts.
The trend began after Iran imposed sanctions that effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, forcing many Gulf tankers to divert through the Red Sea. In a rapid escalation, Yemen’s Houthi fighters launched a series of attacks on Saudi oil carriers, heightening danger on the alternative route.
Matthew Wright of ship‑tracking firm Kpler reports that on only eight vessels navigated Hormuz on the last Sunday compared with over a hundred per day before hostilities broke out: the numbers have since fallen to an estimated eleven on the prior Saturday. The reduction translates to a loss of about 20% of the world’s oil traffic that used the strait in the pre‑war era.
With the strait’s intermittently opened, many vessels now “go dark” – they shut off their AIS transponders to avoid detection whilst passing critical chokepoints. The Red Sea lanes have similarly narrowed; the Bab al‑Mandab strait saw just 28 ship passes on Saturday, with six of them silenced.
Shipping organisations, such as Intertanko, warn that the region’s high‑risk area now extends into Saudi waters and the upper Red Sea. Hapag‑Lloyd’s spokesperson acknowledged that some of its vessels still traverse the Red Sea but stated that network plans will adjust as “circumstances change.”
The recent attacks have forced a return to the “square one” state, with analysts predicting that global oil prices and freight rates will remain volatile until a lasting solution can be found. The author’s estimate suggests that restoring normal cargo flows will take at least three to four months once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
