Polish PM Warns of Critical Months as Russia Threatens NATO

Polish and Lithuanian armed forces in camouflage combat gear preparing in Poland

Prime minister Donald Tusk has said Poland is preparing for various scenarios, declaring the coming months could be critical amid a changing war landscape. He was responding to rumours that Moscow might launch an armed provocation to test NATO’s resolve. The Russian threat is said to stem from intelligence collected by the United States.

Tusk told reporters that the threat is especially clear for the Baltic states. Polish news outlet Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki said the US had issued several warnings to Warsaw about a plot to attack the country. The White House and State Department did not comment on the reports.

Under the alleged plan, Polish infrastructure could be targeted by missiles or drones, or soldiers could be deployed to a NATO member. The intention would be to pressure Ukraine’s western allies to suspend aid to the country as it continues confronting the full‑scale invasion launched in 2022.

Asked about the reports, Tusk said that Poland would not ignore the threats, but is also preparing for various situations. "We are aware of the threats thanks to information from our allies," he added.

President Nawrocki has been invited to a NATO summit in Turkey next week, where leaders will discuss defence spending and a pledge to continue providing weapons for Ukraine. The summit follows calls by European leaders, especially from the United States, to strengthen defence budgets.

Tusk had previously warned that Russia could attack a NATO member state in months. In early June, his deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski said he would not rule out a Russian false flag operation in the next two years to justify an attack on a NATO state.

Baltic states have openly warned about vulnerability. Latvian media reported that intelligence services had warned of potential military provocations from Moscow, while Lithuania’s ambassador to NATO noted that hybrid warfare, such as missile or drone incursions, was likely more probable than a conventional attack.

NATO’s Article 5 confirms that an armed attack against one member state is considered an attack against all, prompting a collective defence response.