In brief
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography recorded an annual inflation of 3.75 % in October, up from 3.57 % a year earlier. Core inflation rose to 3.80 % year‑on‑year, and the Bank of Mexico considers both headline and core rates within its 3 % ± 1 % target. Banamex foresees headline inflation of 3.9 % by the end of 2026, citing potential wage and weather risks.
Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.75 percent in October, driven largely by electricity rates, airfares and some agricultural products, data released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography showed in an official report issued in Mexico City.
The agency reported that the National Consumer Price Index rose 0.65 percent in October from the previous month, a higher monthly increase than the 0.36 percent recorded in October 2025, and a higher annual rate than the 3.57 percent in the same month last year.
Besides the headline figure, the institute released core inflation numbers, excluding volatile food and fuel items: it rose 0.34 percent month on month and 3.80 percent year on year.
Core inflation’s steadier rise keeps Mexico’s inflation within the Bank of Mexico’s 3 % ± 1 % target range, which President‑in‑waiting says is a sign that monetary policy remains in equilibrium.
Published in the Xinhua daily, the institute named some of the key contributors to its October lift: airfares, which climbed 26.36 percent; electricity rates, up 18.51 percent; and tomato prices, rising 9.68 percent.
Mexico News Daily added a quick‑look list, noting “green tomatoes” at 35.58 percent and pumpkins at 23.22 percent, while confirming the peak of 26.36 percent for air transport and 18.51 percent for electricity.”
Banamex, a major private lender, issued a separate comment in the same release, noting that the month’s headline inflation represented the largest October increase since 2021.
According to Banamex, we expect annual headline inflation to reach 3.9 percent and core inflation 3.7 percent by the end of 2026, while maintaining our 2027 forecasts for both measures at 3.9 percent.
Banamex highlighted several upside risks to inflation, including a greater pass‑through of minimum‑wage increases to other wages, stronger inflationary pressures from weather conditions, particularly an El Nino that could intensify, higher‑than‑expected fruit and vegetable prices amid rising international fertilizer costs, and a greater pass‑through of the recent currency depreciation to non‑food goods.
Bloomberg’s coverage echoed the core reading, noting that the print figure for core inflation rose to 3.80 percent, modestly higher than the 3.78 percent estimate that market expectations had calibrated around.
In the same market‑watching piece, analysts observed that energy costs were a major pressure point, rising 3.49 percent in October, led by an 18.5 percent increase in electricity rates as summer subsidies were lifted in several cities, and a 3.67 percent rise in propane gas.
All outlets, including Bloomberg and MarketWatch, agreed that the underlying inflation dynamics were still in line with the central bank’s policy stance and target range, though the sharp rises in specific headline items such as airfare and electricity could pose short‑term challenges.
Metaworld readers would note that the numbers presented today emphasize Mexico’s ongoing balancing act between growth and price stability, a core focus of the Bank of Mexico’s latest policy framework, which remains steady at a target of 3 percent with a tolerance band of ± 1 percent.
