In brief
SpaceX founder Elon Musk has projected that shipping one kilogram of cargo to orbit could drop below $100 thanks to full reusability of Starship, using Falcon 9's reusable booster to drive costs down. Current launch costs still hover around $18,400 per kilogram, but Musk envisions hourly Super Heavy lifts delivering 10 million tonnes a year. The outlook could reshape the orbital logistics market.
Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, announced on July 17, 2014 that the cost of sending one kilogram of cargo to orbit could fall below $100 in the future. He delivered the projection in an interview with entrepreneur Ron Baron, which was reported by TASS in New York on November 7. The statement hinges on the company’s drive toward full reusability.
Musk highlighted the Falcon 9’s reusable booster as a key cost driver. The rocket’s first stage returns and lands, extending its usability and lowering launch expense.
Elon Musk
"I think we get to under $100 a kilogram to orbit," he said. "The Falcon 9 launch vehicle has 'around 80% usability. The booster comes back and lands. We do not refly the upper stage and the cost of the upper stage is roughly the cost of a medium-sized jet. So that means the minimum cost per flight for Falcon 9 is a medium-sized jet."
The full reusability of the Falcon 9 lowers the cost of the upper stage to roughly that of a medium-sized jet, according to Musk, which makes the minimum cost per flight comparable to a medium-sized jet rather than a discarded vehicle.
Elon Musk then turned to Starship:
"the entire system is designed for reusability."
SpaceX foresees the Super Heavy booster launching hourly, with 10 million tonnes of cargo delivered to orbit annually, Musk said.
Max Polyakov’s 2022 analysis notes that at maximum payload capacity, first‑orbit cost translates to about $18,400 per kilogram and $30,200 for a standard launch.
TASS reported that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration had listed the cost at $18,500 in 2010, and that Falcon 9’s arrival reduced it.
If Musk’s projections materialize, the space logistics market could expand rapidly, enabling more commercial satellites, payloads, and potentially new orbital industries to thrive on a lower cost foundation.
SpaceX’s continued reusability milestones and Musk’s vision for terabyte‑level cargo volumes underscore an evolving economic model for orbital access.
Musk argued that reusing the Booster reduces launch cost so dramatically that the base cost approaches that of a commercial jet.
Musk said that Starship’s design aims to support an hourly launch cadence, a cadence that would negate many of the logistical bottlenecks that currently constrain orbit access.
