Democrats Projected to Flip South Carolina Senate Seat, First Since 1998

In the November 3 electoral contest in South Carolina, media projections say Democrat Annie Andrews will defeat Republican Darline Graham in the U.S. Senate race, a breakthrough for Democrats in a state that has consistently favored the GOP for nearly three decades. NBC News announced the projected win on Tuesday evening, noting that Andrews would end a Republican hold on the seat that dates back to 1998.

The victory would also be the first Democratic gain in the state’s Senate history in 28 years, making it one of the most consequential upsets in recent election cycles. Republicans have maintained a 53–47 majority in the Senate, and a Democratic win in South Carolina would bring the chamber one seat closer to a 51‑49 split, moving the party closer than ever to taking control.

Campaign Dynamics

The race received high profile attention after Republican Senator Lindsey Graham passed away in late 2025; President Donald Trump personally endorsed his sister, Darline Graham, to fill the vacancy and push for a full six‑year term. Trump’s rally in South Carolina the week before the election emphasized his support for Graham and criticized her opponent as "batshit crazy."

"What is crazy? To want cheaper gas and groceries," Andrews replied in response to the criticism.

Graham has admitted she "is not that informed on national security," an acknowledgement made during the Republican primary. She relied on an endorsement and an $27 million infusion from outside groups to win the primary runoff over the general electorate.

Andrews, a pediatrician by profession, outspent Graham by $22 million, and Democratic groups invested $24 million to turn the seat. Likewise, Republican outside groups poured $27 million into holding the seat. The funding race was almost level, yet Andrews pulled ahead in the final polls.

Polling data from the last week showed the race tightening previously considered safe for the GOP. With Trump’s approval rating at a record low—largely due to his handling of the economy, high diesel prices, and the cost of living—the electorate expressed broad discontent, which was leveraged by Andrews’ campaign. Mobilization efforts focused on economic issues, and the campaign’s messaging contradicted Graham’s position by offering an alternative solution to high living costs.

Projected Outcome and Historical Significance

The projection by NBC News follows a series of exit polls indicating Andrews’ lead in both rural and urban counties. If realized, the seat would become 28th to shift from Republican to Democrat in the state, and the first since 1998, breaking a pattern that saw Republicans dominate South Carolina’s statewide elections for decades.

When the projection was announced, reporters from Reuters described the event as an upset that could move the Senate to a 51‑49 balance. The outlet noted that the victory might push the Democratic Party one seat closer to a Senate majority. The projection also underscored the rejection of Trump’s policies, which observed low approval rates across the state despite a 18‑percentage‑point lead in 2024. Trump’s endorsement of the GOP candidate did not translate to a win, demonstrating a shift in voter sentiment.

Supporters of Andrews celebrated the announcement in Madison Avenue, where supporters unfurled signs featuring her pediatrician background and promised new policy directions. Meanwhile, the Republican base acknowledged their losses, but praised Graham for staying true to her commitment to local concerns.

With the projection now in place, the Democratic Party is set to highlight the upset as evidence of a broader movement, while the Republican Party will analyze which strategies failed. The eventual confirmation of Andrews’ victory will offer a new focal point for both parties as they head into future contests and the potential shift in Senate control tomorrow November 5.