In brief
Since the announcement of a new U.S.–Iran agreement, just seven vessels have navigated the Strait of Hormuz, where a mix of security risks, naval mines and possible tolls have stymied a return to normal traffic flow. Iranian forces have fired on ships, and the United States has maintained a naval blockade that only recently lifted. Experts warn that mine clearance could take weeks to months, while the new Iranian claim to impose a fee system raises further uncertainty. The shipping community remains in a wait‑and‑see stance, with opportunities for confidence building only now beginning to appear.
When the former U.S. president declared that the strait would open without tolls, he unknowingly underscored a hard reality: only seven ships have passed through the passage since the announcement, and traffic remains still stalled.
MarineTraffic data shows 580 vessels perched in the Gulf, with most tankers and cargo ships standing still near Saudi, Iraqi and UAE terminals. The slow release of ships from the Gulf could become the first marker of a return to normality, yet the line remains firmly closed for now.
1. Security and Safety
A hazardous environment looms: Iran has directed fire on transiting vessels and the U.S. maintains a blockade that has disabled nine ships and launched missiles aboard some. Even after the U.S. lifted the blockade, it remains in place until a formal agreement is signed.
2. Mine Threat
Iran threatened early in the conflict to deploy floating mines in the Gulf, a claim confirmed by maritime intelligence centres and U.S. officials. Clearing these obstructions could take from a month to six months, requiring the slo‑w probe of shallow waters at only two or three knots.
3. Tolls or Fees
Traditionally the strait was toll‑free; the new deal proposes that Iran and Oman could impose “service fees” for passage. The uncertainty over how, by whom and how fees would be collected could become a choke‑point for the shipping industry.
For now, shipping captains and owners are watching closely from the Gulf, ready to move if conditions improve. The pace of security easing and mine clearance, however, will determine when the world's oil flow resumes into the Strait of Hormuz.
