In brief
The 2026 Israeli election produced a hung parliament, with Netanyahu’s Likud‑led right‑wing bloc projected to win 53 seats and an Arab‑dominated coalition expected to capture 19. Record voter turnout at 77.7% highlighted unprecedented engagement, especially among Palestinian citizens. Market and political analysts warn that coalition talks could extend for months.
Israel’s 2026 parliamentary election has finished with no single party or bloc holding a majority in the 120‑seat Knesset, as preliminary results see Netanyahu’s right‑wing coalition winning 53 seats and the opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, securing 48. These figures leave both factions 8 seats short of the 61 needed to form a government. The Arab bloc, composed primarily of the Joint List and Ra’am, is set for a historic 19‑seat gain, double the record of 15 seats reached in 2020.
"The preliminary poll results point to complete distrust in Netanyahu and the government of Oct. 7, of the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens," Eisenkot said on social media in the early hours of Tuesday after the official count began.
Eisenkot’s statement came as the Central Elections Committee announced that 5.7 million of the 7.3 million eligible voters cast ballots, a turnout of 77.7%, the highest rate since the 1999 elections.
Netanyahu, addressing supporters in pledge of a “strong, right‑wing, national government,” stressed that his bloc represented the “largest party in Israel.” He noted the Likud party alone would earn 26 seats, the top single‑party result in the tally so far.
While the vote count was still in progress, the markets reacted sharply to the developing uncertainty. Tel Aviv stock indices fell sharply on Wednesday; the TA‑35 index closed down 1.81%, the TA‑125 index dropped 2.46%, the TA‑90 index plunged 4.47%, and the banking sector index TA‑Banks‑5 fell 4.85%.
Market Turmoil
Gad Lior, a senior analyst at the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, told Xinhua that the sell‑off was driven by “political uncertainty and concerns that another Netanyahu‑led government might again struggle to address economic challenges, particularly the high cost of living.” He added that fears of a renewed war with Iran also weighed on investor sentiment.
Joseph Freiman, CEO of Prico, told Xinhua that the rapid shift in results had reversed the shekel’s earlier gains. He explained that most projections during election day favored the opposition bloc, but as vote counting progressed, Netanyahu’s bloc gradually took the lead, “triggering a reversal in currency market sentiment.” The shekel dropped 1.62% against the dollar, reaching 3.128 shekels per dollar.
Early exit polls and voter turnout data also indicated the Arab bloc’s strong performance. With more than 84% of votes counted, the Joint List and Ra’am were on track to secure a combined 17 seats, according to Al Jazeera. Even the final count expects 19 for the Arab bloc, 12 for the Joint List and 7 for Ra’am. Mansour Abbas, the leader of the United Arab List, said he hopes the final election results will allow the anti‑Netanyahu bloc, including his party, to win the 61 seats needed to form a government. "With the numbers we have now, there is no government," Abbas told Israel’s Channel 12 before preliminary results began trickling in.
Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, cautioned in an interview with Al Jazeera that forming a government might be difficult for parties such as Eisenkot’s, noting that they had declared they would not form coalitions with Arab parties during the campaign. "There’s a price to pay," Pinkas said, because "the Arabs can’t be kept outside and only being considered and co‑opted when you need their votes."
The Central Elections Committee stated the final tally of double‑envelope ballots would be completed by Thursday, with official results posted on November 4. In the interim, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders to nominate a candidate he believes can assemble a governing coalition, who will then have 28 days to form a coalition, possibly extended for 14 more days. Should coalition talks falter, a new government may be appointed or the Knesset could be dissolved, prompting a fresh election while the current cabinet remains a caretaker. The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether Israel’s next government includes the Arab bloc as a balancing partner or maintains a predominantly Jewish‑led coalition.
