In brief
As voters head to the polls on 3 November, Democrats see a window to wrest back control of Congress, riding a wave of discontent over President Trump’s handling of inflation, the Iran war and other crises. Trump’s approval has plunged to about 37%, a sharp fall from his early second‑term high and a key factor in the growing optimism among opposition lawmakers. The House race features only 21 toss‑up seats, with 15 currently Republican‑held, while the Senate battle offers seven competitive districts out of 35. Coupled with the GOP’s massive war‑chest, the campaign is a high‑stakes showdown that could reshape the balance of power in Washington. The outcome will not only set the legislative agenda but also lay the groundwork for the 2028 presidential contest.
Americans head to the polls on 3 November to decide how the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency will play out.
Thousands of races across the U.S. – from state legislatures to municipal offices – pile up, but the headline contest hinges on the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that govern Congress. Both are presently in Republican hands, a hold that could swing the balance of power in Trump’s final two years.
Midterms come at bad time for Trump
One of the reasons Democrats have a fighting chance is the president’s low approval rating, a key barometer for how well his party could fare. He entered his second term with a rating just over 50%, but it quickly slid into the 40s.
His rating hovered around 42% when he launched air strikes against Iran at the end of February, falling below 40% shortly thereafter. Today it sits at about 37%.
The battle for the House
The current Republican majority is razor‑thin: 218 seats plus one independent who votes with them. With all 435 seats up for grabs, only 21 districts are considered toss‑ups, 15 of which are Republican‑held. Democrats would need to win five of those and secure 28 additional likely Democratic seats to flip the House.
Historically, the midterms favor a shift against the president’s party, with an average loss of 27 seats; the president’s party has only gained in three of the last 23 elections.
The battle for the Senate
The GOP holds a slight edge: 53 seats versus 45 Democrats plus two independents. Thirty‑five Senate seats are on the line, with only seven deemed toss‑ups, six of which are currently Republican. A Democratic haul of four toss‑ups plus four more likely Democratic seats would give them a 51‑seat majority.
Key races include Michigan’s tight contest between Abdul El‑Sayed and Mike Rogers, and reverse pick‑ups in states where Trump won by double‑digits—Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and even Texas.
What are the key issues for voters?
Beyond Trump’s promises to curb inflation, the cost‑of‑living crisis dominates voters’ concerns. The war in Iran, ignited by U.S. air strikes, has pushed gas prices from below $2.30 to over $4 per gallon, fueling disapproval of his foreign policy.
Other top concerns are healthcare and immigration. Democratic candidates are pushing back against the president’s approach to health insurance costs and border enforcement.
Can Trump defy political gravity?
Data show Democrats are poised for a win, but the GOP’s $600 million cash reserve and an extra $400 million from MAGA Inc give them a hefty advertising advantage. Over $1 billion of political ads aired in September, with the GOP outspending Democrats in nearly all Senate toss‑ups.
Trump’s campaign is banking on last‑minute messaging to boost turnout and mitigate losses. Regardless of the outcome, attention will pivot to the 2028 election, as Trump cannot run again and the focus will shift to what the Democrats represent.
