In brief
Over ten days into a comprehensive internet shutdown aimed at suppressing dissent and protests, Iran faces increasing fears of long-term digital isolation. The government has not set a timeline for restoring services, with reports suggesting a possible permanent restriction of international access. This blackout, the longest in the nation’s recent history, mirrors trends seen in authoritarian regimes elsewhere, including Russia and China. As internet monitoring organizations note potential new systems for internet control, the livelihoods of many Iranians are already suffering under these restrictions.
Iran is 10 days into one of the most extreme internet shutdowns in history, with 92 million citizens cut off from all internet services and even disruption to phone and text messaging.
The Iranian government cut off services on 8 January, apparently to stifle dissent and prevent international scrutiny of a government crackdown on protesters.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was cut off in response to what he described as externally directed terrorist operations. The government has not said when internet services will return, but new reports suggest that, behind the scenes, the authorities may be making plans to restrict it permanently.
On 15 January, the news website IranWire reported that government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March. Internet freedom observers at FilterWatch believe the government is hastily implementing new systems and rules to cut Iran off from the international internet.
There should be no expectation of reopening international internet access, and even afterwards, users' access to international internet will never return to its previous form, FilterWatch said, citing unnamed government sources.
While the BBC cannot independently verify this report or the timing of its implementation, journalists who spoke to BBC Persian also said they were told that internet access would not be restored anytime soon.
From temporary outage to communication black hole
Iran has maintained a tight grip over the internet for many years, with most western social media apps and platforms blocked, as well as external news websites like BBC News. However, many people have managed to access popular apps such as Instagram using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).
Internet freedom campaigners at Access Now say Iran has consistently used shutdowns as a way to mask mass violence and brutal crackdowns on protesters, as seen during the nationwide internet shutdowns during the November 2019 and September 2022 protests.
Economic and Social Impacts
The current blackout, lasting longer than any previous shutdown, has reportedly begun to impact livelihoods in Iran, particularly in e-commerce. As of 18 January, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates over 3,300 confirmed protester deaths, with more than 4,380 cases under review. Importantly, the lack of internet access makes it difficult to independently verify these figures.
Amid these circumstances, a push towards greater digital isolation and increased surveillance on internet usage appears imminent. Experts warn that Iran might emulate restrictive internet systems established in countries like Russia and China.
Ultimately, while repressive measures may temporarily suppress dissent, technology like satellite internet from providers like Starlink provides a glimmer of hope for maintaining connectivity despite governmental controls.
